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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward script. It frequently functions as a type of apology. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the largest improvement is handed the prize. However, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or just the most shocking surprise.

But the latest race is fundamentally unique. The group of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division champions fading and longtime also-rans improving in unison. Under an ordinary year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's facing multiple other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of improvising. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to create big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the building with the immense expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal year, he would be the runaway favorite. But this isn't a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching mix of youth and experience, he trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still